How many are happy and who are worried? The shortage of chips has caused the sales of auto companies to drop, and the foundries have become "big winners"

Since the second half of 2020, many auto companies have cut production due to chip shortages, and sales have fallen short of expectations. Since the beginning of this year, BMW has reduced production of about 30,000 vehicles and stopped production at various plants, some of which are based on daily or individual shifts. According to statistics, in June this year, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 1.926 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. Among them, SAIC Motor sold 320,000 vehicles in June, a year-on-year decline of 31%.

In the automotive industry, the shortage of chips has become a structural problem. Volkswagen, BMW, and Ford all expressed concern about sales in the second half of the year. Automotive chip manufacturers and car companies are seeking solutions to the shortage of chips.

On the other hand, the demand for automotive chips continues unabated, and foundries have taken the lead in benefiting from this “core shortage”. Wafer foundries are ushering in a strong momentum for development. Recently, many foundries around the world have released performance reports that are basically higher than expected. TSMC said that its revenue in June reached NT$148.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8% and a record high. Revenue in the second quarter was NT$372.144 billion, an increase of 19.78% year-on-year; consolidated revenue in the first half of the year was NT$734.55 billion, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the world’s advanced consolidated revenue was approximately NT$ 19.336 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.'s June 2021 revenue also increased by 38.51% year-on-year to NT$5.205 billion.

Judging from the performance of many mainstream foundries, it can be said that they are the biggest winners of "static braking" in this chip crisis. Domestic car chip manufacturers have also achieved dazzling performance under the background of the short supply of chips. In the first half of this year and Q2, both hit new highs. The net profit attributable to the parent in Q2 increased by 215.53% year-on-year; Yangjie Electronics expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half-year will be 120% to 150% year-on-year. Among them, MOS, small-signal, and The year-on-year growth of IGBT and other products have all exceeded 100%.

Upstream companies have made great profits, and downstream companies have to continue to face the impact of chip shortages. According to reports, automotive chips have shifted from "just-in-time production" to the model of "predetermined production capacity" in advance. Many automotive chip manufacturers such as STMicroelectronics, Infineon, and NXP have cooperated with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., and Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. The foundry has signed a cooperation agreement, and the order will be completed in the next two years. According to the news, TSMC has received orders for Apple Car-related chips; Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Chairman Huang Chongren also said that next year's production capacity has been booked, and there is no more.

In order to ensure sufficient production capacity, the wafer foundry continued to order while building factories to expand production capacity. For example, TSMC announced that it would continue to expand its 28nm production capacity, and UMC said it would invest 100 billion yuan to build a factory, and it is expected to increase its monthly production capacity by 27,500 wafers.

Wafer foundries continue to expand production capacity and automotive chip manufacturers place large orders again. It is foreseeable that the demand for automotive chips will still exist in the next two to three years, and a new round of rapid development will be ushered in the new energy automotive market. In the second half of this year, the supply of automotive chips is still in short supply.

However, "predetermining production capacity" in advance is a model in which production capacity is out of touch with demand. It may transfer risks from chip manufacturers to car companies. Once the demand falls short of expectations, excess chips will become inventory. This has certain implications for car companies. risks of.

Previously, many car companies entered the field of chips and embarked on the road to core manufacturing, but the problem is that the development cycle of car-level chips is long, and the certification time is long (usually 2-3 years), which means that car companies need to spend A lot of costs. Car companies have a long way to build cores, and when mass production is achieved, the shortage of automotive chips may have alleviated.

Judging from the current market situation, ensuring a stable supply of goods, maintaining a stable cooperative relationship with upstream companies, and improving risk response capabilities are the safest ways. "Timely production" can only solve the urgent need, and there are also certain risks at the end of the market. . And whether the "predetermined capacity" model can help auto companies, perhaps we can look forward to the performance of the auto market in the second half of the year.